Too close to call: Polling conducted by UGA predicts a tight gubernatorial race

According to a poll commissioned by the Atlanta-Journal Constitution and WSB-TV, the Democratic and Republican candidates for governor — Stacey Abrams and Brian Kemp — are in a dead heat.

The poll was the most recent in a series of general election polls conducted in Athens by the University of Georgia’s Survey Research Center within the School of Public and International Affairs.

Kemp was slightly ahead, with 47.7 percent of the respondents in support to Abrams’ 46.3. But the 1.4 percent margin was within the margin of error of 2.8 points, meaning the two are essentially tied.

A September poll, also conducted by the SRC for the same client, showed the two to be similarly close.

Ted Metz, the Libertarian candidate, received 2.3 percent in the October poll, and 4 percent of respondents were undecided. If neither Kemp nor Abrams wins over 50 percent of the vote, the election will move to a December runoff.

From polls conducted for academic research to corporations, nonprofits and state and local governments, the SRC has engaged with numerous types of surveys since its formation two years ago. Through its partnership with the AJC and WSB-TV, it is now adding general election polling to the mix.

“There is considerable public interest in the Georgia gubernatorial poll, so I’m proud that the SRC is contributing to public understanding of the gubernatorial race and of public opinion,” said SPIA Dean Matthew Auer, who oversees the SRC.

An important aspect of conducting polls is the SRC’s impartiality, Auer said. While the polls may focus on politics, the SRC refrains from becoming entangled with one side, refusing to associate with or work for candidates and parties.

“The SRC is a nonpartisan polling operation in Georgia, which is uncommon,” Auer said. “It does not perform polling for candidates, campaigns, political parties or political action committees. The SRC’s impartiality is an important part of its identity.”

In order to conduct its most recent gubernatorial poll, a random sample of 1,232 likely general election voters was selected. Contacts consisting of 65 percent cellphone numbers and 35 percent landline numbers were obtained through Self Made Insights Company, a sampling vendor that establishes a database through state voter registration lists.

The results from the survey were proportioned to be representative of the electorate in terms of race, sex and age.

The results were verified by an unbiased third party, the Wason Center for Public Policy at Christopher Newport University in Newport News, Virginia, as a means to ensure both the polling process and the results were conducted accurately and fairly.

“Research shows that when polls are done well, they provide valuable information to different kinds of individuals and groups,” Auer said. “For example, public opinion polling on candidates help political campaigns to hone political messages and to understand candidates’ strengths and weaknesses in the eyes of different parts of the electorate.”

Outside the realm of gubernatorial polls, the SRC is a relatively new department, but considering the success it has encountered, it has clear goals for its future.

“We want to eventually be polling all year long,” said Trey Hood, a political science professor and director of the SRC. “One goal I have looking forward is that I want to essentially save up enough money to conduct our own polls on topics we want to poll on. With the AJC, a lot of the questions are [constructed based on] what they want. We aren’t quite there yet, but I’m hoping by next fall to have a program in place for that.”

Since 2016, the SRC has conducted 14 polls with clients such as the AJC, the Georgia Chamber of Commerce, the Georgia Association of Realtors and the Forsyth County Chamber of Commerce. The department also works closely with professors by conducting polls that relate to their fields of research.

SRC polls are “cost effective and typically much cheaper than private sector polling firms,” Hood said.

Though Hood is the only official staff member at the SRC, he hosts undergraduate and graduate students to assist with the day-to-day operations and the managers of the lab.

Jake Truscott, a graduate student at UGA, is the supervisor and manager for the SRC. In this role, most of his duties revolve around general support for the employees of the department.

“There are a handful of universities across the United States that are heavily employed to conduct polling for major news syndicates, interest groups and political parties,” Truscott said. “My hope is that UGA’s SRC can develop itself into being a recognizably competitive research center employed by major groups across the U.S.”